🎯 Same old story: Relief Rally or Bearish Drift?

The market’s mood today was a bit like a hesitant actor on a big stage — technically ready, but unsure about the script. Volatility ticked higher, breadth weakened further, and risk appetite faded just as earnings season hits its second act. Watching the 200SMA and 50SMA for more clues.

I. 📰 Headlines & Catalysts

• Tariffs are back in town. Washington floated more trade restrictions, including potential Hollywood-related tariffs, spooking equity markets and adding to risk aversion.
• AMD beats, but warns. Strong Q1 results were shadowed by guidance that policy headwinds could weigh on margins. Shares dipped after the call.
• China talks incoming. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is heading to Switzerland for early talks with Chinese officials. Markets will be watching tone, not just text.
• Fed Watch. All eyes on tomorrow’s FOMC outcome (2 pm ET). The base case? No change in rates, but forward guidance could shake things up.

📉 Bottom line: Sentiment is tense, not panicked. But the tape feels heavy.

II. 🔍 Sector Performance Snapshot

• Utilities: +1.17% 🟩
• Basic Materials: +0.31% 🟩
• Energy: +0.06% 🟨
• Technology: -0.62% 🟥
• Real Estate: -0.73% 🟥
• Industrials: -0.77% 🟥
• Healthcare: -2.96% 🔴

Theme: Risk-off rotation. Defensives like Utilities held the line while growth-centric sectors like Tech and Healthcare were pummeled.

⚖️ Utilities led like the market was bracing for a storm. Healthcare, meanwhile, got a shot — and not the good kind.

III. 📊 Technical Breadth & Sentiment Check

• NYSE Advance/Decline: Weak — Nasdaq A/D is below its 10SMA (🔴).
• Stocks above 200SMA: Just 25.34% — barely breathing (🟡).
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.92 — edging toward defensive posturing (🟡).
• VIX: 24.76 — high but not spiking (🟡).
• McClellan Oscillator: Still positive at 42.05 (🟢), but breadth says otherwise.

🎯 Breadth was so narrow, even a tightrope walker would flinch.

IV. 💼 Earnings & Corporate News

• AMD ($AMD -2.5%): Beat EPS/revenue ($0.96 vs $0.94, $7.44B vs $7.12B) but warned on margins due to trade policy. AI still a strong tailwind.
• Palantir ($PLTR -12%): Beat revenue but valuation concerns slammed it. Mizuho and RBC weren’t convinced by the AI story.
• Celsius ($CELH +5%): Missed on both EPS and revenue, but international growth (+41%) and upbeat Q2 guidance buoyed sentiment.
• Ferrari ($RACE +2%): Roared on strong demand and pricing power; warned of tariff impacts. Guidance for 2025 reaffirmed at €7B.

🎭 When Hollywood meets tariffs, even Ferrari feels the tension.

V. 🗓️ Economic Calendar Highlights

• Today:
• Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am)
• Fed Interest Rate Decision (2:00 pm)
• FOMC Press Conference (2:30 pm)
• Earnings Ahead (Pre-Market): $UBER, $DIS, $U, $AMRN, $GOLD, $TEVA, $AG, $NVO
• After-Hours: $ARM, $APP, $GT, $AMC, $CVNA, $RUN, $MELI, $JOBY, $Z

📡 Expect some fireworks into and after the Fed — especially with all those earnings.

VI. 🔮 Interpretation & Outlook

Markets are wobbly heading into the Fed. Breadth is poor, sentiment is cautious, and leadership is non-existent. With the S&P stuck below key resistance and macro headwinds (tariffs, rates, China) swirling, it’s a time for selective plays, not full-on exposure.

🔎 Still no green light to get aggressive — this is a market that’s walking on eggshells in steel boots.

What to trade today:

Trading before the Fed’s rate decision today carries elevated risk — market reactions can be sharp and unpredictable, regardless of expectations. (Just remember, I am talking from a swing trader point of view).

Market rewarded stocks from our watchlist: $UBER, $OKLO, $PGR, $RACE, $T, $HIMS. Stops in place. Now it’s all about execution and patience.

Not planning to add more today, at least not until the FED news. Remember, just low-risk entries, no chasing.

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