🧠Rally Paused, Not Broken: Bulls Catch Their Breath as Policy Noise Returns
I. Headlines Behind the Move
After a four-day moonwalk that had bulls high-fiving, Monday brought a thud. Stocks pulled back sharply as the market digested some theatrical policy chatter and a fresh batch of earnings.
President Trump announced 100% tariffs on foreign-made movies, promising to save Hollywood from a “very fast death.” Confusion reigned: Would this affect Netflix? Sports broadcasts? Bollywood?
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the U.S. economy “antifragile,” championing tariffs as a tool to bring investment home. Wall Street… was not inspired.
II. Sector Performance Snapshot
The green glow from last week faded fast. Only one sector held the line.
🟢 Top Performer:
- Consumer Defensive: +0.08%
đź”´ Lagging Sectors:
- Energy: -1.76%
- Consumer Cyclical: -0.98%
- Technology: -0.77%
- Financials: -0.60%
- Healthcare: -0.45%
The usual leaders turned laggards. Looks like the rally needed more fuel — or less drama.
III. Technical Signals
The market’s saying: “I like you… but let’s not rush things.”
âś… Cumulative 4W New Highs: 3 green bars = positive
🟡 Stocks above 40SMA: 47.5% → neutral territory
🟡 Stocks above 200SMA: 26.4% → narrow participation
✅ McClellan Oscillator: +43.37 → solid, but not overheated
🟡 Put/Call Ratio: 0.92 → slight hedging
🟡 NAAIM Sentiment: 59.92 → moderately bullish
🟡 VIX: 23.64 → elevated but calm-ish
Indices are above the 21EMA and 50SMA, but no confirmed breakout yet. Internals improving, but not convincing.
IV. Earnings & Corporate News
Notable Reports:
- Hims ($HIMS) wowed with 111% YoY growth and 2030 targets north of $6.5B
- Palantir ($PLTR) crushed with 71% growth in U.S. commercial and raised guidance
- TG Therapeutics ($TGTX) dropped 14% after an EPS miss despite strong drug revenue
Pre-Market Earnings: $CELH $LMND, $DDOG
After-Hour Earnings: $AMD, $LCID, $RIVN, $SMCI, $UPST, EA -0.38%↓
V. Economic Calendar Highlights
📦 U.S. Trade Balance (8:30 AM) — early view on global demand
⚡ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12:00 PM) — oil market watch
💵 10-Year Treasury Auction (1:00 PM) — bond market temperature check
No FOMC this week, but data and yields still drive the tape.
VI. Interpretation & Outlook
After a vertical sprint, the market finally took a breath. Monday’s red wasn’t panic — but topping tails and weak breadth raise eyebrows.
Key scenarios:
🟢 Close above 200SMA? Rally resumes with confirmation
🔄 Pullback holds 21EMA? Bullish consolidation
đź”» Break below 21EMA? Watch out below
This is not “back up the truck” territory. It’s “wait for the breakout or breakdown.” Tactical mode on.
What to trade today:
Sometimes, the best trade is no trade. Today is about watching, not chasing — the indexes are at key levels, and clarity will come with time. No setups meet the criteria, so the plan is simple: stay patient, stay alert.
Trades taken on yesterday are fine ($LOAR and $LTH) as per yesterday watchlist and announced on Twitter/X in the morning.
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