Fed Pauses, Markets Twitch

Laurentiu Chisca

4 min readMay 8, 2025

I. Headlines & Catalysts

The Fed held rates steady at 4.25–4.5%, citing “increased uncertainty.” Powell’s press conference could be summarized as: “We’re not sure what’s next, but we’ll let you know once we know.”
The market rallied for 9 consecutive days, then paused with a classic 3-day pullback — essentially forming a beautiful bull flag. I’m watching the 200 SMA and the 50 SMA/21 EMA zone. A move above Friday’s high could signal strong opportunities ahead.

Trump plans to scrap Biden-era AI chip curbs, which lit a fire under semiconductors (SOX +2.1%). Nvidia soared +3.6%. Ironically, $ARM reported strong earnings… and still dropped.
Alphabet ($GOOGL -7%) tanked after Apple teased an in-house AI search engine for Safari. Is Google’s search monopoly finally facing a real threat?

II. Sector Performance Snapshot

🟢 Winners:

Tech (+0.81%)
Healthcare (+0.73%)
Consumer Cyclical (+0.70%)

🟡 Neutral Movers:

Utilities, Energy, and Defensive sectors hovered near flat.

🔴 Losers:

Communication Services (-1.72%)
Basic Materials (-0.83%)

Tech caught a tailwind, while Communication Services got caught in a downdraft — Google dragged the whole crew down.

III. Technical Breadth & Sentiment Check

Breadth remains poor: Only 26% of stocks above the 200SMA, and just 47% above the 40SMA.
A/D lines diverging, with Nasdaq notably weak versus its 10SMA.
VIX at 23.55, not panic-level but still nervous.
Put/Call Ratio (0.80) shows cautious optimism.
McClellan Oscillator & Summation are green, but barely.

Breadth was so tight, it could pass as a yoga instructor. We’re rallying — just without most of the team.

IV. Earnings & Corporate News

Disney ($DIS +10%) delivered magic: EPS beat ($1.45 vs. $1.21), raised FY guidance, and added a surprise — a new park in Abu Dhabi.
Oscar Health ($OSCR +30%) popped after a big beat and 40% YoY membership growth.
$AMD (+2%) beat estimates but warned of a $1.5B China-related hit. Analysts were split — one upgrade, one cut.
$ARM posted a beat (EPS $0.55 vs. $0.52) but got caught in geopolitics.
Alphabet’s -7% faceplant overshadowed decent market breadth in tech.

V. Economic Calendar Highlights

🕗 Today’s Key Releases:

Jobless Claims & Nonfarm Productivity (8:30am) — labor market lens.
30-Year Treasury Auction (1:00pm) — interest rate watchers take note.

🎧 Earnings Lineup:

Pre-Market: $HUT, $QBTS, $PTON, $MNKD, $JMIA, $PEN.
After-Hours: $NET, $RUM, $PARA, $COIN, $DKNG, $PINS, $SOUN, $LYFT, $TTD, $AFRM, $RKLB, $DBX.

VI. Interpretation & Outlook

This is a market climbing a wall of worry with crutches. Breadth is weak, volatility is mid-range, and the Fed is nervous. The bulls want to charge, but most of the herd is still lagging behind key moving averages.

We’re still in a secular bull — but without a major improvement in participation, upside may remain tactical, not structural. Keep an eye on % stocks over SMA200.

What to trade today:

First of all, adjust stops if you took trades ($LOAR, $ZS, $LTH, $PGR, $RACE, $TMDX, $UBER, $T, $HIMS, $OKLO).

For today, I will watch:

$TSLA — strong consolidation around all major moving averages. This is a key level closely watched by institutional traders.

$KVUE — nice VCP pattern forming just below resistance, with a constructive shakeout yesterday.

$VRT — consolidating just below the 200 SMA

$META — bull flag forming above all major moving averages.

$IBKR — constructive consolidation around all major moving averages.

$SOXL — strong bottoming pattern with higher lows, decreasing ATR, and low volume. Note: this is a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, so handle with care.

Until breadth improves, trade small or stay in cash. Real pros know: the best edge is not playing a bad hand.

Wishing all traders a focused and profitable day! May your setups be clean, your discipline strong, and your trades in sync with the trend!